Hormuz Flow
Oil out of the Strait, two weeks before the war and every day since.
One chart, pulled fresh every time you open this page. The parchment line is AIS-visible tanker oil. The steel bars are US-escorted nights that ran transponders off — including the 18 million barrels that crossed on 1 September. Green wash is the fortnight before the war; red wash is since.
- Pulled
- Sep 15, 3:52 AM UTC
- Series through
- September 6, 2026 · 9d lag
- Strait
- Effectively no
- Brent
- $106.90
- Ship transits
- 6/85 · 7% of pre-war
Two weeks before
17.1mb/d avg
14–27 Feb · live AIS tankers
Since the war
1.1mb/d avg
28 Feb–September 6
Latest day
0.4mb/d
September 6 · 3% of pre-war
Missing barrels
2.82 bn
vs 15.8 mb/d baseline
Average estimated flow since 28 February is 94% below the two weeks that preceded it.
US-escorted night · AIS dark
18.0mb claimed
Sep 1 · 40 tankers, transponders off
Before
17.1 avg
Since war
1.1 avg
What moved the line
September 1
40 tankers, 18 million barrels
US officials told CNN that 40 commercial tankers carrying about 18 million barrels of crude crossed Hormuz under US Navy escort on Tuesday night, bound for Asia. Transponders were off to dodge IRGC targeting. Highest wartime day — a spike, not a new rate. Kpler saw 11 AIS ships; PortWatch had not yet printed the night.
August 31
Wright’s 17 mb Monday
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC more than 17 million barrels transited on Monday — a wartime record, he said. Kpler counted five AIS-visible vessels that day. Ships in the escort were told to keep transponders off.
August 17
MoU expires
The 60-day window ends. Iran enforces a transit-and-fee regime. Flows stay a fraction of the pre-war baseline.
July 7
Re-escalation
Tankers are hit in Omani waters. The US resumes strikes, the MoU collapses, and outbound tanker cargo drops toward zero overnight.
June 25
Wartime peak
Kpler’s 7-day average of crude/condensate through Hormuz peaks near 11.9 mb/d — still well below the pre-war ~16 mb/d.
June 17
US–Iran MoU
A 60-day interim deal reopens the waterway and lifts the US blockade. Stranded cargo starts streaming out.
April 12
US naval blockade
Washington imposes a naval blockade on Iranian ports, squeezing the remaining Iranian barrels that had been moving to China.
March 2
IRGC closes the Strait
Iranian forces declare the Strait closed and begin attacking ships that try to transit. Traffic collapses within days.
February 28
War begins
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Outbound traffic is still heavy as tankers flee the Gulf.